IQLIM O'ZGARISHI SHAROITIDA O'ZBEKISTON IQTISODIYOTI BARQARORLIGINI TA'MINLASH: "YASHIL KLASTERLAR" MODELI VA MAKROIQTISODIY TAHLIL
Abstract
Maqola iqlim o'zgarishining O'zbekiston YaIM dinamikasiga ko'rsatadigan makroiqtisodiy ta'sirini kompleks baholashga qaratilgan. Tadqiqot maqsadi — iqlimiy xatarlarni yumshatishda "yashil klasterlar" modelining iqtisodiy samaradorligini ekonometrik asoslash va ushbu transformatsiya jarayonidagi asosiy institutsional to'siqlarni aniqlash. Ishda ko'p omilli regressiya tahlili (Y = β₀ + β₁X₁ + β₂X₂ + ε) va ssenariylar tahlili metodlari qo'llanildi; ma'lumotlar bazasi sifatida Jahon banki, IMF va O'zbekiston Statistika agentligining 2010–2024 yillardagi ko'rsatkichlari ishlatildi. Tadqiqot natijalari shuni ko'rsatadiki: (1) faol moslashish choralari YaIM yillik yo'qotishini 3,0–5,0% dan 0,5–1,5% gacha kamaytirishi mumkin; (2) "yashil klaster" modelida Benefit-Cost nisbati 4,0–7,0 ga yetib, adaptatsiya investitsiyalari kelajakdagi iqtisodiy zararlarni 7 barobargacha qisqartiradi; (3) sanoat zonalarining 15–20% da klasterlashtirishni joriy etish resurs sarfini yiliga 20–25% ga kamaytiradi. Tadqiqot natijasida moliyaviy, axborot va institutsional to'siqlar aniqlandi hamda "yashil" kreditlash mexanizmlari va raqamli "Climate-Data" platformasi orqali ularni bartaraf etish bo'yicha amaliy takliflar ishlab chiqildi. Kelajakdagi tadqiqotlar uchun panel ma'lumotlar asosida solishtirma tahlil o'tkazish tavsiya etiladi.
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